Global liquidity inflection point has not yet arrived

The global liquidity inflection point has not yet arrived the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Cheng Shi according to the current economic reality, we judge that the global liquidity inflection point has not yet come, this is the reason we think do not have to worry too much about the market in the short term, and we believe that the market in the long term real cause for concern. The turning point of global liquidity is yet to come – if a thing is not meant to last forever, it will end; if it is destined to end, it may not end immediately. For some time, once the fear of the market suddenly began to panic, panic index jumped, European and American stock market adjustment. Just like before no reason "fearless", "the market is now the state of extreme nervousness." lack of reason. In fact, did not significantly change the fundamentals of the global economy in a short period of time, similar to the British middleweight champions back black swan event geopolitical yet. The fundamental fear of the market is the arrival of liquidity inflection point. We believe that although the liquidity inflection point is bound to, but has not yet come, in a long time can be expected, the potential limit loose and maintain unconventional financial environment, is still the main tone of global monetary policy. Only by short frequency performance of central bank officials, a word or two economic data, it is not enough to get the liquidity inflection point coming to the conclusion. No matter what the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan in September to choose, regardless of Yellen and Kuroda Junyan this week’s remarks biased doves or hawks, the pattern of global liquidity easing difficult to change rapidly. The market may underestimate the potential monetary easing the financial crisis in 8 years, the global economic and monetary policy has entered the weak cycle trap: global economic growth continued weaker than expected – unconventional monetary policy easing monetary policy continue to test the limit due to the output gap narrowing and diminishing marginal effect – economic recovery is difficult to get the expected policy boost the real economy lack of vitality and loose dependence of TFP decline in global economic growth – Central decline – weak recovery continues. Although the policy effect is declining, but in this weak cycle, liquidity inflection point is bound to occur in the limit range of easing policy. We believe that global monetary policy has not yet reached the real meaning of "no loose to loose" level: first, the United States, 3~4 2016 increases from the beginning of the year is expected to the current up to a future, the Fed is likely to further suppress the benchmark interest rate curve, with slower pace of tightening to prolong the duration ultra low interest rates, while Yellen resorted to zero as the lower limit of the interest rate policy in the future sector in September the global central bank meeting, also shows that the more likely the Fed kept dovish style. Second, Europe and Japan, negative interest rates are constantly refresh human loose monetary history record, the future negative interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) and further raise the space. There is a lack of rigorous, strong theoretical research on the negative interest rate level may limit our bottom line, from the cost, the bank safe system capacity, the risk of a run line and virtual currency substitution four "constraints" of the negative interest rate, the table)相关的主题文章: